One of the main reasons Oracle is buying Sun is to get it’s hands on Java. Much of it’s middleware stack is Java based and having control of Java the language and the default implementation makes sense for them. I don’t really fear for Java or the JVM. If anything I think it will do better under Oracle’s stewardship than Sun’s, just because Oracle get things done. However, that also means that they will be prepared to do what Sun was not, kill off non-profitable areas of the business.

Java targets three markets: enterprise, desktop, and mobile/embedded. Two of those markets have historically received a lot of attention from Sun and have flourished, namely enterprise and mobile/embedded, whilst until recently the desktop market has been left languishing. Obviously Oracle’s main interest is in enterprise Java, that’s the bread and butter of it’s current business. I think Java’s ubiquity on mobile phones and the associated licensing revenue means that Oracle will see a viable business unit there and keep it running.

Unfortunately I don’t see how they are going to make money out of desktop Java. They can’t sell or license the technology, most of the best development tools are free and open source, and most enterprise UIs are heading more and more towards being browser based.

Sun’s decision to take on Adobe Flash with JavaFX has been driving improvements in whole desktop Java ecosystem. Whilst JavaFX has a lot more to offer than Flash because it runs on the JVM, the user experience is still has a long way to go before it even rivals Flash and Flash already plays very nicely with Java back end systems. meaning it can be used to provide compelling front end UI for Java enterprise systems already. I would be surprised if Oracle chose to continue fighting a battle that many people think was won by Adobe a long time ago.

The only saving grace for JavaFX might be as part of the mobile phone strategy (although that already has some excellent UI options such as LWUIT) or on the new battlefield that is emerging, televisions and set top boxes. I believe the next release of JavaFX will add the television profile, and at NAB this week, Adobe demoed “Flash for Digital Home”. Here JavaFX might have a small head start, since every BluRay player already has a JVM capable of running JavaFX, a lot of set top boxes already run Java (I believe), and a lot of the TV manufacturers involved already have a relationship with Sun because they also manufacture mobile phone handsets (Sony, LG, Samsung etc.). Even if this saves JavaFX, it doesn’t mean they will keep it as a desktop technology.

The alternative is that they toss it out to the open source community, and whilst there is a lot of interest and enthusiasm, it’s never going to get gain traction without a major corporation behind it. I hope I’m wrong. I hope that Oracle keeps JavaFX and pushes it on the desktop as well as on TVs and phones. I wouldn’t go betting my mortgage on it though!